President Joe Biden's recent announcement that he will not seek re-election in 2024 has ignited intense speculation about the potential invocation of the 25th Amendment. While some view this as a pathway to remove Biden from office, constitutional experts and political analysts suggest that such a scenario is highly unlikely within the current timeframe.
The 25th Amendment: A Brief Overview
The 25th Amendment, ratified in 1967, outlines procedures for presidential succession and the transfer of power in cases of presidential incapacity. Section 4, which has never been invoked, allows the Vice President and a majority of Cabinet members to declare the President unable to discharge the duties of the office.
Biden's Announcement and Its Implications
On July 21, 2024, President Biden declared his decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. This announcement followed a contentious debate with former President Donald Trump, raising concerns about Biden's performance and suitability for office.
The Role of Vice President Harris
If the 25th Amendment were to be invoked, Vice President Harris would assume the role of Acting President, not President. This distinction is crucial, as Harris would perform presidential duties without holding the official title of President unless Biden's removal became permanent due to death or resignation.
Challenges to Invoking the 25th Amendment
Several factors make the invocation of the 25th Amendment unlikely in this scenario:
- High Constitutional Threshold: The amendment requires the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet to agree on the President's incapacity, a politically sensitive decision.
- Temporary Nature: The amendment is designed for temporary transfers of power, not permanent removal.
- Political Ramifications: Such a move could be seen as a power grab, potentially damaging Harris's political future.
- Lack of Precedent: Section 4 of the 25th Amendment has never been used, making its application uncertain.
Public Opinion and Political Pressure
Recent polls suggest growing concerns about Biden's fitness for office, with 51% of respondents supporting the use of the 25th Amendment. However, public opinion alone is insufficient to trigger this constitutional mechanism.
The 25th Amendment has been invoked a total of six times in U.S. history since its ratification in 1967
Section 1 was used once in 1974 when President Richard Nixon resigned and Vice President Gerald Ford became President.
Section 2 was used twice: In 1973 when Gerald Ford was appointed Vice President after Spiro Agnew's resignation In 1974 when Nelson Rockefeller was appointed Vice President after Ford became President.
Section 3 has been used three times for temporary transfers of power during presidential medical procedures: In 1985 when President Reagan underwent colon surgery Twice by President George W. Bush in 2002 and 2007 for colonoscopy procedures.
Section 4, which allows for the removal of a president deemed unfit to serve by the Vice President and Cabinet, has never been invoked.
Conclusion and Prediction
While President Biden's decision not to seek re-election has fueled speculation about the 25th Amendment, the likelihood of its invocation remains low. The constitutional hurdles, political risks, and unprecedented nature of such an action make it improbable within the remaining months of Biden's term.Experts predict that Biden will likely complete his term as planned, with the transition of power occurring through the normal electoral process in January 2025. The speculation surrounding the 25th Amendment serves more as a reflection of political discourse than a realistic scenario for presidential succession.